The AfD was able to double its share of second votes in the 2025 federal election and enter the Bundestag as the second strongest force. The aim of this study is to describe this increase in voter favorability in more detail using 14 waves of the WSI panel. The analyses illustrate the changes that have occurred in the composition of the AfD electorate among the working population, e.g. that it has recently been more popular than before among women and former voters of moderate centrist parties. It also looks at the high AfD voting rate among working-class people and highlights the reinforcing effect of transformation concerns and feelings of injustice. The latter generally play a major role when migration, the AfD’s core issue, is examined in more detail and feelings of disadvantage come into play. There are also indications of a shift to the right in the attitudes expressed, as a general deterioration in attitudes towards refugees can be seen among all respondents over time. Then it is showed how the AfD has benefited from the crises of recent years – specifically the pandemic and the period of hyperinflation. A final conclusion discusses the findings and formulates political recommendations for action.
Find the whole study (in German) here.
